Stock Phoenix’s Nifty analysis for the Month of September – 2023.

Nifty on Weekly Fibonacci

Nifty on Fibonacci

We will study the Nifty movement with the help of Fibonacci numbers. It’s one of the moves important and powerful indicators that will help us to arrive at the Targets for the reversal trend. It’s drawn by arriving at the top and bottom of the movement and it’s drawn to arrive at the next set of support and resistance. The higher the Time Frame, the better the results. Here we have taken the Daily charts to draw the Fibonacci Numbers. The drawing remains the same until we get a new high or new low by Nifty. Numbers 38.2% and 61.8% are considered very crucial in the Fibonacci series.

Nifty Analysis :

Nifty made Life Time high on the 17th of July 2023and from there on it is showing constant decline Nifty has hit the 23.60% Retracement Levels and has sustained in the same Levels over a month. On the Last Trading in August, Nifty closed near the 23.60% Retracement Zones and this is a sign of caution. Now our next Analysis gets very simple. If the Nifty breaks the 23.60% Retracement zone, then we can expect a beautiful downside love till the zone’s 38.20% Retracement Zones which is placed at the Level of 18783.40. And this is the Important Ratio of Fibo and this is the zone we should look for a strong buying zone. However, if these levels also get broken, then one can expect the Index to hit the 61.80% Retracement zone and this is the Golden Ratio of Fibo and this is placed at 18036.80.
At the same time if Nifty holds above 19245.25, Then the Index will take support from these Levels and make a strong Reversal and will travel towards the Upside on the Levels mentioned in the Fibo Chart and the Upside Level for the Index is 19991.85 and a new high also can be expected..

Levels for the Month of September – 2023

As the Index is standing right at the Important zone – We can arrive at easy Levels on both the Upside as well as Downside.
Upside Levels – 19580.60 and 19991.85 if Nifty holds 23.60% Retracement Levels which is placed at 19245.25.
Downside Levels – 19783.40,18783.40 and 18410.10 if Nifty breaks 23.60% Retracement Levels which is placed at 19245.25.

What are the possibilities of Nifty breaking the low or travelling upside in the Month of September 2023?

Nifty made a New Lifetime High in the Month of July and this rally started from 16828.35 Levels to 19991.85. After such a long bull run one can expect a small retracement in Nifty. Nifty closed right near the zone of 23.60% Retracement Levels and it’s very important to watch out for the first-week closing. Index sustaining above these Levels will give way to the bulls and vice versa. As we head towards the New High, The Market has halted after a big bull run and usually 23.60% does not act as an important Reversal Zone – However, if the reversal takes place at this zone: then we can expect the recent high to get broken – This trend we have witnessed many times – so it’s would be interesting to watch out for the reversal in the month of September.

Even though the Fibonacci numbers are very accurate, the Fibonacci analysis does not tell anything about the timeline to achieving the targets. For the time frame, we have to take the help of the Nifty Option chain. The near-term target can arrive with the help of the Option chain.

Weekly Expiry – 07th of September

Today is the first day of the month and we cannot arrive at the exact target for the Index. However, we can arrive at the overall picture with the help of Option chain writing. Looking at the option chain, we can arrive at the below inference.

The weekly PCR Ratio shows the sign of Neutral. We can see a good amount of Resistance is getting built in the zones of 19400 and 19500. Hence these levels will act as crucial resistance for the first-week expiry. At the same time, the support is seen at 19200. On breaking this, there is no strong near support zone. So it’s critical to watch out for the move in the first week of Expiry. Stay tuned to the Stock Phoenix Telegram Channel for more live updates.

Monthly Expiry

It’s too early to predict Monthly Expiry. The overall PCR ratio suggests highly Bullish when compared to Neutral Sentiment for the first week of expiry. As of now, No Major support or Resistance can arrive from the Monthly Option Chain. We will get more clarity once the first-week expiry is over.

Immediate Target and resistance

  • Upside Targets: 19580.60, and 19991.85 (Above 19245).
  • Downside Targets: 18738.40, 18410.10 and 18036.80 (Below 19245).

The News Which Will Impact Nifty’s Movement

The is no Major news ahead for the Month of September – Track the ongoing news Nationally and Globally. .

The conclusion from Stock Phoenix

We see the Bullish Sentiment for the Month of September if the Index holds 23.60% Retracement Levels. For the last 10 years we have seen Bullish Sentiment in the Index for the Months of September and October – will this continue for the year 2023 also?

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